Saakashvili Left for Moscow with Little Hope of Breakthrough

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili arrived on February 10 in Moscow to hold talks with the Russian leadership. Withdrawal of Russia’s remaining two military bases, joint fight against terrorism and Abkhaz conflict are expected to top the agenda .

Georgian Foreign, Energy and Finance Ministers, the General Prosecutor, as well businessman and the leader of the Industrialists party Gogi Topadze accompany Mikheil Saakashvili to the Russian capital. Georgia’s new ambassador to Russia Kote Kemularia, a close ally to Saakashvili, also left to Moscow.

Talks between Saakashvili and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin are scheduled for February 11. Georgian President reiterated that he expects no “miracles and breakthrough” from visit to Moscow.

“On the eve of the Presidential elections in Russia it is hardly possible to expect positive steps from Moscow towards Georgia. However, I expect that the positive trends would prevail in the relations between the two countries after my visit,” Mikheil Saakashvili told the reporters on February 10 aboard of regular Tbilisi-Moscow flight. Saakashvili decided not to use the presidential jet for the trip to save the budgetary funds.

Georgian President will also hold talks with the Russian Foreign and Defense Ministers, as well as with Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov. Georgian delegation will also meet with the representatives of the Russian business circles and Georgian community in Moscow.

Saakashvili, who was sworn in as a President on January 25, said at the inauguration ceremony, “I would like to extend the hand of friendship to Russia and I hope Mr. Putin will accept this hand of friendship when I visit Moscow.”

The Russian newspaper Kommersant reported today quoting unknown sources in Kremlin that Moscow would try to persuade Saakashvili to sign a protocol, which would provide rather “obscure and unclear formulation of the dates of withdrawal of the Russian military bases from Georgia; recognition of special rights for the Russian citizens and the Russian-speaking population living in Georgia.” The Russian newspaper also suggests that Moscow will also try to receive the guarantees that Tbilisi would not use force to restore its territorial integrity.   

Georgia’s new President says that he wants to start “new relations with Russia,” however many political analysts say that number of same old problems will be an obstacle to Saakashvili’s goal. Russia’s two military bases in Georgia and Moscow’s support to the secessionist provinces are among the main concerns of Tbilisi.

Recently, Russia hinted that it might slightly soften its position over the military bases. Deputy Head of Russian chief of staff of the armed forces Yuri Baluyevsky said on February 2, that Russia could withdraw its military bases from Batumi, Adjara Autonomous Republic and Akhalkalaki, southern Georgia, within “seven, or nine years,” however added that Georgia’s demand to close down the bases in three years “is unrealistic.” Russia initially demanded 10-11 years for withdrawal from the military bases.

Moscow also has its concerns regarding Georgia, which is mainly related to the terrorist threat. Russia wants guarantees that rebels from Chechnya won’t be able to find a shelter in Georgia, like it was couple of years ago, when the armed Chechen groups set up a hideout in Georgia’s Pankisi gorge. 
 
In the wake of Moscow deadly metro blast on February 6, President Mikheil Saakashvili reiterated that Georgia is ready to provide “assistance to Russia and cooperate with Moscow to fight against the terrorism.” 

He said that the issue is “vital for us, as Georgia is in the area where the terrorism risk is high.” He said Georgia would never become a hiding-place for terrorists, adding “presently there are no Chechen fighters in Georgia.”