Opposition Running a Quiet Campaign
Opinion Polls Suggest Slight Increase of Opposition’s Support According to the recent opinion polls, none of the parties, except the ruling National Movement-Democrats, will be able to clear the 7% threshold, necessary for securing seats in the Parliament. “The statements of some opposition parties that they will receive 10 or 15% of votes are far from reality. Any opposition party would consider as a great success to receive just 7%,” Zakaria Kutsnashvili of Socialist opposition party told Civil Georgia. However, support of the three opposition parties – Rightist Opposition – Industrialists-New Rights and Tavisupleba (Freedom) and NDP-Traditionalists has relatively increased for past couple of weeks. According to the opinion polls, commissioned by the Open Society – Georgia Foundation (OSGF) and conducted by the BCG research group on March 18-23 suggest that Rightists Opposition’s support has increased from 2% to 3,4%; Tavisupleba (Freedom) – from 0,9% to 1,9% and NDP-Traditionalists – from 0,6% to 0,8%. Observers note surprise successes of a newly established party Tavisupleba (Freedom), which was set up in January. Party is led by Konstantine Gamsakhurdia, son of Georgia’s first President Zviad Gamsakhurdia, who was ousted as a result of a military coup in 1991-1992. Konstantine Gamsakhurdia made his first public appearance in Georgia on March 17 after 12 years of exile in Switzerland. “If this party had started its election campaigning earlier, it would have become more popular. I think its support might further increase,” Davit Usupashvili told Civil Georgia. The Rightist Opposition – Industrialists-New Rights are rather optimistic and hope to receive at least 10% in elections. “I don’t even think that we won’t clear 7% threshold,” Davit Gamkrelidze, one of the leaders of the coalition told reporters on March 24. The election bloc the Rightist Opposition – Industrialists-New rights launched their election campaigning just couple of weeks before the elections by traveling in the Georgian regions by bus. “We are having fun while traveling by bus. We are promising voters put enterprises into operation and employ population,” Davit Gamkrelidze said. The Revival Union, which is led by Adjarian Leader Aslan Abashidze, also holds quiet election campaign, mainly in the Adjara Autonomous Republic. According to the BCG’s opinion polls the Abashidze-led party received 3,6% support, which is slightly decreased since early March. According to the BCG’s polls support of the ruling National Movement-Democrats party has also decreased since early March from 78,1% to 73,4%.
With coffers already strained the opposition parties are running low-profile election campaign, which started just couple of weeks before the elections. Despite opinion poll’s results, which suggest a slight increase of opposition parties’ support, their chances to gain seats in the Parliament remain slim.
The March 28 parliamentary elections loom, however there are no debates on television and only few posters of the parties in the streets of Tbilisi, as well as few political TV ads of only several opposition parties.
19 parties and blocs will stand for partial rerun of fraudulent November 2 parliamentary elections. However, recent opinion polls suggest that only the ruling National Movement-Democrats party has a chance to clear 7% threshold and secure seats in the Parliament.
The opposition parties explain their quiet campaigning mainly by the lack of funds. “November 2 elections exhausted parties’ finances. Three elections for five months made both parties and people tired,” Irakli Kadagishvili of the NDP-Traditionalists opposition coalition told Civil Georgia.
Lack of finances is not the only reason of quiet election campaigning. Opposition parties are experiencing hard times after last year’s bloodless revolution.
“There are several reasons of low-profile campaigning: lack of funds and lack of time to prepare for elections. But there is also one more reason – unpopularity of the opposition parties. Political forces which are in the opposition are mainly those that distanced themselves from popular Rose Revolution,” influential legal expert and leading civil activist Davit Usupashvili told Civil Georgia.