Sensing Abashidze Weakness, Tbilisi Treads a Tough Line







Abashidze faces tough choice.
In a last bid to solve the Adjara crisis peacefully, the ruling party offers defiant leader of the Autonomy Aslan Abashidze to give up power in exchange for the security guarantees for himself and his ‘inner circle’. Political analysts say the offer was anticipated, as it would be too risky for President Saakashvili’s government to solve the standoff by use of force.

The offer was voiced by an influential MP Giga Bokeria of the ruling National Movement-Democrats (NMD) known to be a close political associate of President Mikheil Saakashvili.

“We are ready to ensure Abashidze’s security if he voluntarily gives up power and quits politics.” Bokeria said. He added that this offer is not fully “correct” from the legal point of view, as the government implicated Abashidze earlier in numerous criminal offense. Nonetheless, Bokeria stated “we are ready for this kind of political compromise to secure smooth resolution of the problem.” Giga Bokeria offered these comments to Tbilisi-based Mze TV on April 28.


He also said that the deal would apply to Abashidze’s “inner circle” . Bokeria added that Abashidze is already informed of the proposal. Apparently there has not been any response from the Adjarian leader yet.
 
Political analysts say that peaceful resolution of the crisis is of vital importance for the Saakashvili’s government, as bloodshed in the region would be a major blow for the country’s President and his allies.



“Abashidze is doomed for failure in this standoff, which is deadlocked at the moment, because the central authorities have all the necessary resources to gain control over the defiant region. But the question is what will be the price of this victory [for the central government]. If there will be bloodshed, this will be a major blow for Saakashvili, who enjoys with popular support in Georgia,” Ia Antadze, Tbilisi-based political analysts, who reports for RFE/RL told Civil Georgia.


On the other hand, political analysts also allege that forceful solution of the crisis would also harm future conflict resolution talks with Abkhazia and South Ossetia.


“Level of confidence towards the Georgia’s new government among Abkhazians and the Ossets will decrease significantly as soon as Saakashvili uses force in Adjara and it will make a solution of these conflicts a distant possibility.” Ia Antadze said.
 
“Hence, the recently proposed deal [to Abashidze] of security in exchange of giving up power was anticipated, as Tbilisi is seeking for peaceful resolution. If the central authorities succeed, it will be a major success of Saakashvili’s government, now facing a huge test,” she added.


Tbilisi backs up this tough request with a credible force. Major military exercises are held in close vicinity of Adjara Autonomous Republic in Poti on April 30-May 2. Although the Georgian Defense Ministry claims that the maneuvers have nothing to do with the Adjarian developments, the message to Abashidze is clear.


At the same time, the offer is well-timed. Abashidze has been humiliated by the decision of the officers and servicemen from the 25th brigade of the defence, the border troops, as well as his personal guards to defect to Tbilisi, after their commanders pledged loyalty to Abashidze. As  attempt to present a credible military opposition to Tbilisi has failed, and in the process Abashidze has clearly implicated himself in a criminal offense of undermining the loyalty of the armed forces to the Georgian authorities.


A combination of these factors may have forced Abashidze to plead for peace on April 28, when he called for resolution of the tensions at a “negotiating table.” Importantly, Abashidze also stated that Tbilisi’s attempts to resolve conlflic through the military means were foiled by the Western powers.


Nonetheless, feeling strength of its position, Tbilisi does not seem to be willing to offer a face-saving solution to Abashidze.