Experts Predict No Warming in Russo-Georgian Relations
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| Hopes over warming relations, which were triggered after cordial meeting between Saakashvili and Putin in February, are now fading away. |
Secretary of the Georgian National Security Council Gela Bezhuashvili said on September 8, that recent developments in breakaway South Ossetia, referring to clashes between the Georgian and South Ossetian forces in August that left dozens dead from the both side, “created gulf of misunderstanding in relations between Russia and Georgia” and triggered “Georgia-phobia” in the Russian society.
In an interview to the Russian newspaper Vremia Novostei, published on September 9, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also noted deterioration of bilateral ties with Georgia and accused Tbilisi of hampering cooperation. He expressed regret that the ties between the two counties are not as close as it was agreed during the talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Georgian counterpart Mikheil Saakashvili, which took place in Moscow in February this year.
“Unfortunately, in practice the agreements reached in February are torpedoed by the Georgian side. We hope the Georgian side will understand that the unilateral forceful steps towards so called Ossetian and Abkhazia problems have no perspective. I hope Tbilisi will understand that seeking an external enemy in the form of Russia is counterproductive, to say the least.” the Russian Foreign Minister added.
Political analysts in Georgia say there are no signs that relations between the troubled neighbors might improve in the near future. Experts say that Russia will further step up its “imperialistic policy” in the Caucasus region, especially after the hostage-taking drama in Russia’s North Ossetian town of Beslan, which left at least 350 civilians dead.
Alexandre Rondeli, who chairs the Tbilisi-based think-tank Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, says that Russia will continue its “imperialistic policy under the pretext of fighting terrorism.”
“Russia is confused and very angry after the Beslan tragedy. Now it is planning further steps, but I don’t expect drastic changes in its Caucasian policy. If Russia were more democratic, than important shifts in the policy would have been anticipated, but not now,” Rondeli told Civil Georgia.
“I think Russia will continue its aggressive policy in Caucasus and sometimes it might become even more aggressive. This is a threat for Georgia, which has two separatist regions – Abkhazia and South Ossetia, both backed by Moscow,” Rondeli said.
However, he added, that on the other hand, after the Beslan tragedy, the region became “a limelight.”
“A huge international attention towards this region is an advantage for Georgia. This makes Georgia’s appeals to the international organizations, including the OSCE, for their increased role in conflict resolution issues, more reasonable. We should use this factor and counterbalance negative aspects of Russia’s policy,” he added.
MP Zurab Davitashvili of Parliamentary Committee for Foreign Affairs, who also is a chief of the International Relations Department at the Tbilisi State University, also says that no changes in Russia’s Caucasian policy are anticipated.
“I think a huge international pressure remains the only way to somehow force Russia to change its policy towards the separatist regimes [in Georgia],” MP Zurab Davitashvili told Civil Georgia.
Georgian political analysts say that recent steps of Russia towards Georgia, show that decision-makers in Kremlin are quite determined to keep control over Georgia’s separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Alexandre Rondeli says that in this case continuation of the peace process to solve the conflicts in South Ossetian and Abkhazia will be impossible.
“If Moscow continues support of the separatist regimes, and we see that the Kremlin is not going to change its policy, than continuation of so called political process in these regions would be practically impossible,” Rondeli said.