A mood is tense in Georgia as the day of elections on November 2 looms. Dispatches of the news agencies speak of the possibility of ‘destabilization’ – an euphemism for civil unrest that has haunted the Georgian politics since the bloody years of early 1990s.
Most in Georgia hope that the country’s citizenry and politicians are more mature today than in early days of independence, and the institutions of state relatively better entrenched.
Most observers concede the chances are low for the country sliding into violence. However, after much criticized elections in Armenia and the recent contested presidential elections in Azerbaijan, Georgia is a last state in South Caucasus to put its democracy to the critical test. So far, several days before the elections, the omens are mixed.
Violent incidents during the election race have captured closest attention of the national media. Last summer, most of the opposition parties gathered to decry political violence. But the pledge seems to have been fast forgotten.
Most recently on October 23, representatives of the radical opposition party – New National Movement – clashed with supporters of the local authorities, the police and, by some report, military officers in Batumi, capital of Adjara Autonomous Republic.
Batumi is a home base of the Union of Democratic Revival (UDP) a party led by Aslan Abashidze, Autonomous Republic’s leader. The opposition and civil society leaders alike have blamed Abashidze for ruling the autonomy as his own fief and shying public scrutiny of the elections. Indeed, UDP usually accounts for more than 90% of the votes in Adjara guaranteeing itself the national parliamentary seats. Abashidze has, during last elections restricted access of the international and national observers to the autonomy.
Sky-high support figures for a single party and unrealistically high voter turnout figures have led the observers wonder on fairness of elections in the province. For the upcoming elections the Central Election Commission (CEC) still has not received the voter lists for Adjara.
Mikheil Saakashvili, head of the National Movement has several times declared his intention to ‘rock Batumi’ he portrays as a home to anti-democratic evil. Abashidze, on his part, blamed the Saakashvili and other former leaders of Citizens Union in a conspiracy to murder or oust him. Thus when Saakashvili’s party announced its intention to rally in Batumi, the smell of gunpowder was in the air.
Violent street clashes left several people injured, but luckily went without casualties. More sadly for the Georgian democracy, both sides have used the showdown to score own political points through sympathetic media. Abashidze claimed an attempted coup through his own television channel with national coverage. Adjara TV coverage brought the message to other provinces of Georgia regarding an attempt of the capital-based politicians to restrict the rights of the local communities.
Saakashvili scored points as the only opposition leader to try and challenge Abashidze on his own turf. Perhaps coincidentally, his party emerged back on top in the latest polls which were previously dominated by more moderate Burjanadze-Democrats bloc.
Sporadic violence was seen in other provinces of Georgia as well. Revival offices were bombed in West Georgia (Samegrelo), clashes between the local authorities and the National Movement took place in yet another government-dominated province – Kvemo Kartli. These areas are more likely than others to feature in violation reports of the election days and may yet see some new incidents.
The government from President Eduard Shevardnadze downwards wove to prevent violence and instability. But popular reaction at government statements is perhaps more disturbing than incidents themselves. The public service is clearly a part of this election campaign. President Shevardnadze is officially backing the election bloc For New Georgia which is chaired by the State Minister, Avtandil Jorbenadze. Moreover, the government officials and provincial governors see it as their duty to endorse the bloc.
In a telling example, various ministries are airing daily ads on state TV to highlight their successes – an apparent attempt to complement the pro-governmental alliance’s campaigning, when the popular confidence is low and the airtime scarce.
Thus, President Shevardnadze’s recent statement that he is ready to take “all necessary steps” to prevent destabilization was perceived as a thinly veiled threat to the opposition, rather than the genuine attempt to maintain public order on an election day. Shevardnadze’s mentioning of Azerbaijan in this context did not help to avert the suspicions.
The government interference in elections is expected, but with the diverse and powerful opposition contesting the elections, backed by massive national and international monitoring effort and free media it is unlikely that the government would be able to rig the elections on massive scale.
More dangerous threat to fairness of the elections is posed by the terrible mess in election administration, of which no political party can escape responsibility. As the elections were still being planned, the parties remained deadlocked in the parliament on composition and structure of the CEC. The pro-governmental and opposition factions have in turn boycotted the sessions throughout last fall and this spring and dragged on the new election legislation to take full force.
As a result, the new CEC was inaugurated only in September, and even that after direct interference of the former US Secretary of State James Baker who literally forced the compromise on the political parties. By then the vital time was lost, especially for rectifying the shabby and inaccurate voter lists – a primary source for vote-rigging.
Despite strong technical and expert support by the International Fair Elections Society (IFES) and the deadlines moved several times CEC has conceded on October 30 that the computerized voter lists can not be finished on time. Hence, the precinct commissions would rely on hard copies and make hand-written additions, thus increasing the margin of error which should have been 15-20% even in the computerized lists.
The government, the Revival and the opposition parties have all at one time or another threatened not to recognize the election results if the lists remain inaccurate. For now these voices have subsided, however those not content by the results of November 2 vote are most likely to use this argument to challenge the validity of the outcome. Should the number of these parties be high enough, the country may face serious political crisis.
But not all news is grim. The media and civil activism in monitoring the election process is extremely high. Country’s non-governmental organizations would, for the first time, run the monitoring at all precincts under the shared umbrella of the national election watchdog – Fair Elections Society. Another civil society group – UN Association of Georgia – facilitates the media results center – a clearing house of election-related information and analysis. Private Rustavi 2 company contracted the US firm to conduct an exit poll despite government’s opposition to the idea.
The political campaigning has been largely uninhibited, despite some limitations in Adjara. The judiciary has maintained a neutral image in handling the election registration appeals, which may help to resolve post-election disputes.
More significantly, the jigsaw puzzle of the Georgian parties has become easier to categorize. The polls show a maximum of 6 parties with the chance to clear the election threshold. Two of those pro-governmental Alliance for New Georgia and the Revival are the oxymoron – political organizations created by and around the incumbents in executive power. The remaining ones, while still weak structurally and over-reliant on their leaders feature recognizable political agendas and styles.
The New National Movement occupies the extreme right wing with the Labor on the extreme left. Both of these groups rely on protest vote. Burjanadze-Democrats and the New Rights lean towards the liberal-conservative center, trying to sway nascent middle class. The obstructionist Revival and politically fragmented Alliance for New Georgia are bound to produce the ‘swamp’ of the parliament – depending on the size of their representation they will form either largely inert or blocking body of MPs.
More interestingly, most of the party leaders are very young – usually in their late 30s or early 40s. Thus, if the processes in the country proceed without major shakeups the political parties and their leaders will have the time to mature for the next general elections in 2007.
In the meantime, November 2 and its aftermath remains a crucial test for functionality of the Georgian state and democratic institutions. Sadly, it seen almost as an achievement in CIS space when democratic development still stands a chance. Observers are only left to cross the fingers and hope for the best.