With the March 28th parliamentary elections less than a week away, even the new government’s fiercest opponents would admit that the ruling National Movement-Democrats party is poised for a landslide victory. This agreed upon, two major variables still exist in the upcoming elections –will the elections in Adjara be free and fair and will any of the opposition parties gain seats in the parliament.
On March 18th, Adjarian leader Aslan Abashidze promised President Saakashvili that he would secure the existence of a free campaign for the opposition and cooperate with the central authorities to ensure free and fair elections in his region, a region that is historically infamous for its highly suspicious elections.
International observers have already increased their presence in the troubled region. Plamen Nikolov, representing the Secretary General of the Council of Europe in Georgia, traveled to Adjara last week and received consent from the Adjarian leader to begin implementing CoE’s mission in the Autonomous Republic.
On March 19th, Plamen Nikolov told reporters that “representatives of the CoE would assess pre-election developments in Adjara.”
Two long-term observers from the OSCE Election Observer Mission in Georgia also returned to the region after the resolution of a five-day long crisis. OSCE observers were pulled out from Adjara for security reasons after President Saakashvili was denied to enter the region on the March 14th and tensions escalated between the central authorities and the Adjarian leadership.
Despite a political agreement between Tbilisi and Batumi to hold elections in Adjara, the Central Election Commission (CEC), which is responsible for the management of the polls, fears that the elections will fail to meet international standards in the Autonomous Republic.
Zurab Tchiaberashvili, the Chairman of the Central Election Commission, told reporters on March 19th that “A political agreement has been reached, but it is not enough to hold free and fair elections in Adjara.”
The main problems faced by observers in the region derive from the voter list of the region. The list that was submitted to the Central Election Commission by the Adjarian authorities was heavily criticized by the CEC chief as “useless,” due to its numerous inaccuracies.
“The turnout during the voter registration process in Adjara was also very low. In Batumi [the Adjarian capital] only 5,000 voters have been registered since March 8th,” CEC Chairman Zurab Tchiaberashvili said.
The Adjarian election administration appealed to the CEC to extend voter registration in the region, requesting four additional days. However, this request was rejected by the CEC and the original registration deadline expired yesterday.
Chairman of the CEC, Zurab Tchiaberashvili, explained his organization’s decision to deny the administration’s request on March 22, citing the possibility that, if given more time, compilations may arise involving over-inflated voter lists in Adjara.
Despite the Adjarian authorities’ readiness to cooperate with the central government over elections-related issues, some political analysts still doubt that the Adjarian leadership will secure free elections.
During his decade-long, unilateral reign in the Autonomous Republic of Adjara, Aslan Abashidze has repeatedly managed to secure guaranteed seats in the Parliament for his Revival Union party. In each parliamentary election since 1995, the Revival Union Party has received upwards of at least 95% of the votes in Adjara, thus creating doubts over the existence of free and fair elections in the Autonomous Republic.
Unlike previous governments in Georgia, however, the new leadership of the country does not intend to turn a blind eye to the highly-suspicious elections in Adjara.
According to the mid-March opinion polls, commissioned by the Open Society – Georgia Foundation (OSGF) and conducted by the BCG research group, fair elections would dictate that the Revival Union has fewer chances to gain seats in the Parliament. This opinion poll suggests that the Revival Union should receive around 4% of the vote.
The chairman of the Central Election Commission has already hinted that the existence of widespread ballot fraud in the Autonomous Republic would force the commission to disregard election results in Adjara. According to the election code, if the total number of cancelled ballots does not exceed 10% of the total number of ballots cast throughout the entire country, the elections will be considered valid.
But the Abashidze-backed Revival Union is not the only party which suffers from low public confidence. According the BCG polls, none of the opposition parties will be able to clear the 7% threshold. As a result, Georgia might have a one-party Parliament with no opposition to balance this ruling party.
However, the recent crisis in Adjara and the issue of fair elections in the troubled region has overshadowed these problems related to the possibility of the emergence of a one-party legislative body in Georgia.