Experts Say Moscow Wrestles In
Political analysts in Georgia say that the surprise deal between the Abkhaz former presidential rivals Sergey Bagapsh and Raul Khajimba was made possible due to the pressure exerted on opposition leader Sergey Bagapsh by Moscow. However, on December 6, Russian President Vladimir Putin downplayed Russia’s role, saying that the breakthrough was achieved because of the “Abkhaz politicians’ efforts.”
According to the agreement signed by Bagapsh and the pro-governmental presidential contender Raul Khajimba, who is backed by Moscow, will run together in a repeat elections to be held before January 13. Bagapsh will run as the President and Khajimba as Vice-President. At the same time Vice-Presidential powers would be increased, possibly including control over the military.
Political analyst Paata Zakareishvili, who has participated in regular meetings with the representatives of the Abkhazian non-governmental organizations since 1996, says that the crisis had a two-sided outcome for Moscow.
“On the one hand, Russia failed, since it could not promote its favorite candidate Raul Khajimba to the position of President. On the other hand, Moscow has won the game, since it showed Sergey Bagapsh that he failed to come to power without Russia’s assistance. Moscow showed that the support of the Abkhaz people is not enough to become the President of Abkhazia,” Paata Zakareishvili told Civil Georgia.
Zakareishvili also said that by compromising with Khajimba and Moscow, Bagapsh lost his “pro-Abkhazia” stance. “Now Russia will always remind him how he came into power,” Zakareishvili added.
Russian political analyst Aleksey Malashenko of Carnegie Moscow Center thinks that developments in Abkhazia were a failure for the Russian policy.
“As a punishment for uncompromising stance of Bagapsh, Moscow closed its railway with Abkhazia and banned import of agricultural products from Abkhazia. But Moscow has anyway failed in this situation, as [Russia] has lost the most important – trust of the Abkhaz people,” Aleksey Malashenko told the Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
Russia played a crucial role in the Abkhaz elections, even before the crisis broke out following the disputed October 3 elections. After a face-to-face meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Raul Khajimba took place in late August, it became clear who Moscow’s favorite presidential candidate was.
Even after the Abkhaz Central Election Commission declared opposition leader Sergey Bagapsh as president-elect Moscow refused to recognize the election results and instead closed its rail link and banned the import of agricultural products from Abkhazia, days before the scheduled inauguration of Sergey Bagapsh.
Sanctions were a major blow for the breakaway region, as exports of agricultural products, mainly tangerines and oranges, and cross-border trade with Russia represent the foundation of the current Abkhaz economy.
Dr. Giorgi Anchabadze, who teaches at the Sokhumi University since 1984 and frequently visits the Abkhaz capital, thinks that outcome of the crisis was still favorable for Moscow. “Actually, Russia managed to interfere and end the political crisis with desirable results,” he told Civil Georgia.
Dr. Anchabadze also says that now the most important thing will be the position of the Amtsakhara, Aitaira and United Abkhazia movements. These are the most influential opposition forces in Abkhazia, which supported Bagapsh during the presidential polls and the ensuing crisis.
It is clear that not all of Bagapsh’s supporters are satisfied with their leader’s compromise. However, Anchabadze does not expect any major tensions between Bagapsh and his former political allies.
“People were extremely tired after two months of tension and they were looking forward to a breakthrough,” he said.
But Paata Zakareishvili does not rule out that the opposition forces Amtsakhara, Aitaira and United Abkhazia might nominate a new candidate for the repeat elections. “Now, the opinion of Stanislav Lakoba, who was sure that he would take over the Vice-President’s post in Bagapsh’s administration, is very interesting,” Paata Zakareishvili says.
Currently, Bagapsh and Khajimba are holding talks over outlining the new powers of the Vice-President. Sergey Bagapsh said on December 8 that the new Vice-President’s power will be significantly increased. He said that the Vice-President will be in charge of the defense and security structures, as well as foreign policy.
“Naturally, the President will remain the Commander-in-Chief, who will also define the republic’s foreign policy. However, the Vice-President will be in charge of all activities in this direction,” Interfax news agency quoted Sergey Bagapsh as saying.
Tbilisi remains tight-lipped about the compromise. Just a day before the agreement in Abkhazia was reached, President Mikheil Saaakshvili said Bagapsh apparently enjoyed support of the majority of the Abkhaz.