The Georgian Parliament’s plans to set a performance deadline for the Russian peacekeepers stationed in the South Ossetian and Abkhaz conflict zones hit Russian-Georgian relations new low. Political analysts say that ties between the neighboring countries are becoming more and more strained as Georgia seeks to achieve a breakthrough in its attempts to regain control of the breakaway regions, while Russia tries to maintain the ‘frozen’ status of the conflicts.
The Georgian Parliament plans to discuss a draft resolution at a session this week which would serve as an ultimatum for the Russian side. The resolution instructs the Georgian government to take measures to prepare a withdrawal of the Russian peacekeepers from the South Ossetian and Abkhazian conflict zone if the performance of the peacekeeping forces does not improve before February, 2006 and July, 2006 in South Ossetia and Abkhazia respectively. This action by the Georgian Parliament was described by the Russian Foreign Ministry as “a provocation.”
The current row mainly involves disagreements over the peace format for resolution of the South Ossetian conflict. Georgia tries to change both the Russian-dominated negotiating setup and peacekeeping formats, while Moscow, as well as the authorities in breakaway South Ossetia, wants to maintain the current arrangements.
“Russian-Georgian relations can now be characterized as extremely tense. Russia wants to maintain the status quo in Georgia and therefore any attempts by Tbilisi to change something irritates Moscow. On the other hand, Georgia can no longer turn a blind eye on the processes which are currently developing in Abkhazia and South Ossetia and which can be described as an annexation [by Russia],” Temur Iakobashvili, the Vice-President of the think-tank Georgian Foundation for Strategy and International Studies (GFSIS), told Civil Georgia.
Political analysts also say that current relations between Tbilisi and Moscow resemble those which prevailed between the two countries prior to reaching an agreement over a withdrawal of two Russian military bases from Georgia. Before an agreement was reached in May of this year, the Georgian Parliament passed a resolution which instructed the government to take measures against the Russian military bases if an agreement over a “reasonable” timeframe for their withdrawal was not reached.
“When there was a row over the military bases, it seemed the Russian-Georgian relations reached their lowest level and the talks also seemed deadlocked; but suddenly this problem was settled painlessly through negotiations. Similar processes are probably taking place currently regarding the conflicts,” Temur Iakobashvili said.
But some observers say that another scenario is also possible. “Of course, it is possible that Russia might easily give up its firm position as it happened in the case of the military bases. But we should also be ready for another scenario, which might be similar to that one when armed clashes erupted between the Georgian and South Ossetian forces last August,” political analysts Giorgi Khelashvili told Civil Georgia.
Analysts also suggest that the Georgian authorities seem to have an action plan, as certain consistencies are being observed in the moves taken by the Georgian authorities, unlike last year, when spontaneous decisions made by official Tbilisi led to clashes in South Ossetia.
“The fact that the Georgian side did not demand the immediate pullout of peacekeepers and gave them a certain period [four months in the case of South Ossetian and eight months in the case of Abkhazia] to improve the situation, confirms that decisions are being made with prior consideration, without any [spontaneity],” Giorgi Khelashvili said.
The Georgian authorities’ calls for a peaceful resolution are always accompanied by military rhetoric voiced by top-level officials, including the President and Defense Minister, which further fuel tensions in the conflict zones.
“It is clear that a peaceful resolution is a priority for the Georgian side, but Georgia also does not make a secret about its willingness to use force,” Temur Iakobashvili said.
Iakobashvili noted that since the conflict resolution process is generally accompanied by hawkish talk, flaring tensions and the risk of becoming involved in provocations increases. “So now it is of crucial importance for Tbilisi not to make any mistake in this process,” he added.