Cautious optimism expressed by the Georgian and Abkhaz sides after UN-mediated peace talks early in August has all but dissipated after fresh political skirmish over the Abkhazia railway talks and the largest-ever military exercises held in the unrecognized republic on August 15-19.
UN-led Peace Talks
Both the Georgian and Abkhaz sides described the UN-mediated talks in Tbilisi on August 4 as “constructive” leaving observers hoping for positive momentum in further negotiations.
Security guarantees, including non-resumption of hostilities and return of the Georgian internally displaced persons (IDPs) to the breakaway region were the major issues discussed between the sides on August 4, in frames of UN-led “Geneva process.” The Russia-dominated “Sochi Process” mainly deals with economic dimension of conflict resolution.
Foreign Minister Sergey Shamba and Deputy Defense Minister Gari Kupalba represented breakaway Abkhazia at talks, while the Georgian side was represented by State Minister for Conflict Resolution Issues Giorgi Khaindrava.
Georgian Presidential envoy for Abkhaz issues Irakli Alasania did not attend the talks, following the protest of the Abkhaz side. The Abkhaz officials say they have good working relations with Alasania, but can not sit at the negotiating table with the person which also chairs the Tbilisi-based Abkhazia “government-in-exile” that the current Abkhaz authorities deem illegitimate.
But both sides tried to gloss over the differences. The talks in Tbilisi were postponed twice because of a maritime incident in June where the Georgian Coast Guard seized a Turkish vessel en route to Abkhazia.
The negotiations mainly covered broad issues and participants refrained from discussing the concrete details with the media. Georgian State Minister Giorgi Khaindrava said after talks that security grantees topped the agenda.
“If the sides have no guarantees on non-resumption of hostilities, it will be impossible to hold negotiations over other issues,” Khaindrava said at a joint news conference with Sergey Shamba after the talks.
“We are optimistic; at least today we have this kind of stance. Today the situation gives us the opportunity to develop a process,” Sergey Shamba said, adding that he is thankful to the Georgian delegation for a “fruitful and constructive meeting.”
The return of Georgian internally displaced persons to Abkhazia, first of all to the Gali district, was also discussed during the talks. Thousands of Georgians have already returned spontaneously to this predominantly Georgian-populated district of the breakaway region. But the Georgian side wants this process to take place officially, with security guarantees for those Georgians who decide to return. The Abkhaz side agreed to conduct a registration of returned IDPs in the Gali district under the aegis of the UN refugee agency (UNHCR).
“Interesting proposals were put forward by the sides today, which might be formalized in an official document in the future, though differences over some issues remain. But it is important to continue working, to continue dialogue,” Khaindrava said.
The next meeting in the frames of the “Geneva process” is scheduled to take place in the first half of September in the Abkhaz capital of Sokhumi.
Railway Row
The promising appearances of the Tbilisi talks were somewhat soured by the row that erupted in less than a week after, regarding the denial of the Abkhaz side to allow entry to the Georgian railway experts.
A group of experts from Russia, Georgia and Abkhazia was to assess the current condition of the Abkhaz section of the Russo-Georgian and define the investment necessary for re-opening of this crucial economic link between Russia and the South Caucasus.
A joint group was scheduled to start works on August 9. But according to official Tbilisi, the Abkhaz side refused to grant entry to three ethnic Georgian experts on the grounds that they were natives of Abkhazia i.e. were displaced during the conflict. Georgian State Minister for Conflict Resolution Issues Giorgi Khaindrava described the Abkhaz refusal as “discrimination” against the Georgian experts who are internally displaced persons from Abkhazia.
But Vice-Premier of breakaway Abkhazia Leonid Lakerbaia said on August 10, “the Georgian side has no well-founded reason for being absent… It seems that politics has prevailed over economics once again.”
In a statement issued on August 12, the Russian Foreign Ministry called on “both sides, first of all on the Georgian side, to take measures aimed at finding a compromise and not hold this important economic project hostage to political ambitions.”
As a result, assessment works were started without Georgian participation, to the apparent displeasure of Tbilisi. On August 15 the Georgian Foreign Ministry called on Russia “to exert adequate influence on the Abkhaz side” and ensure the involvement of Georgian experts in the works.
Moscow’s policy in this case seems unexpectedly reckless. It cost Georgian authorities some political capital to abandon their old policy line rigidly linking launching of the railway with return of the displaced persons to Gali district of Abkhazia. After the recent incident, Tbilisi left the back door open for withdrawing its consent on re-opening of the railway link, Georgian officials say that “no final political decision” has yet been made in Tbilisi on railway issue.
Abkhaz Maneuvers
Yet another blow to the seeming détente was the military exercises in Abkhazia, which according to the officials there were the largest ever held in the unrecognized republic. Minister of defense of Abkhazia, Sultan Sosnaliev said 6,444 troops participated. This gave Tbilisi one more reason to accuse Moscow of backing the secessionist region with arms and funding.
The exercises were held in Abkhazia on August 15-19, with a scenario of repelling the naval aggression. According to Sosnaliev and the media reports, armored vehicles, artillery, the navy and air forces took part in the exercises.
The Georgian side protested against the maneuvers claiming that the training area where the last stage of exercises was held is within the zone of restricted armament. Although Alexander Kazantsev, the Chief of Staff of the Russian peacekeeping forces, admitted that the training ground in Nagvalou is located in the zone of restricted armament, the Russian peacekeepers turn a blind eye, citing the fact that the Georgian side also conducts maneuvers within this zone.
Before attending the final stage of the maneuvers on August 19, Abkhaz leader Sergey Bagapsh visited Moscow on August 14-18 where he reiterated that Abkhazia will seek closer ties with Russia, saying that “associated membership” in the Russian Federation would be the most favorable scenario for Abkhazia. Speaking with reporters at a news conference in Moscow on August 17, Bagapsh said that by the end of 2005 “almost all residents of Abkhazia will become Russian citizens.”
Although Bagapsh denied Tbilisi’s allegations that Russia provides arms and finances for the Abkhaz army, he admitted that the Abkhaz side will be glad to recruit mid-ranking military, navy and border-guard officers of Russian citizenship into its armed forces.
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Events in August showed that while the political détente on Abkhazia is possible, any peace initiative is bound to remain fragile. Politicians both in Abkhazia and Georgia proper have to take into account sometimes radical opinions of their own constituencies, and shy from being seen as overly friendly with an opponent. Under these conditions, Russia’s role continues to be unconstructive, fuelled by reckless actions and statements of its officials.