The Georgian authorities’ intensive talks over alternative gas supplies raise more questions than answers, which, as some opposition leaders say, may result in Prime Minister Nogaideli’s dismissal.
Tbilisi’s claims that it has reached an agreement with Turkey on the redistribution of gas shares from Shah-Deniz field appear to be invalid.
An unnamed Turkish official told Reuters on December 25 that a deal has not yet been reached with Georgia, adding that talks are expected to continue in a week in Istanbul.
Turkish Energy Minister Hilmi Güler also said on December 23 that additional talks between Azerbaijani, Georgia and Turkish officials will soon take place in Istanbul over the terms for the redistribution of Shah-Denis gas shares between the three countries.
Meanwhile, Georgian Energy Minister Nika Gilauri said on December 24 that he reached a gas-sharing agreement with his Turkish counterpart in Ankara on December 22.
Officials from the Turkish Embassy in Tbilisi told Civil.Ge on December 25 that they would not comment on the deal which, according to Gilauri, has been reached with the Turkish side.
Initially Turkey agreed to give up part of its Shah-Deniz gas share – 800 million cubic meters – in favor of Georgia in 2007. But it seems that problems remain regarding how Georgia will compensate Turkey for the gas.
Meanwhile in Baku, Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli said on December 25 that Azerbaijan has agreed to supply Georgia with 1 million cubic meters of gas per day during the winter period.
But details of deal, including a price, have not been disclosed. PM Nogaideli did, however, say that the “Price will be acceptable for us.”
It also remains unclear whether this gas is part of Georgia’s original quota from Shah-Deniz – 250 million cubic meters in 2007 – or if it is an additional amount.
Georgian Energy Minister Nika Gilauri has stayed in Baku for additional talks with the Azerbaijani side and to finalize the deal.
“Azerbaijan has never left Georgia [alone] in difficult times,” Ilham Aliyev, the Azerbaijani President, said before talks with the visiting Georgian PM.
Late on December 25 in Tbilisi, President Saakashvili hailed Azerbaijani’s decision on gas supply as an expression of “brotherly relations” between the two countries.
“Azerbaijan was told that it would remain without heat if it gives even one cubic meters of gas to Georgia. But only few could make a decision like the one that was taken by Ilham Aliyev. Yes we have ill-wishers, but we also have friends like Azerbaijan,” President Saakashvili said while meeting with students from the Tbilisi State University late on December 25.
“There will be no force able to defeat us if this kind of cooperation continues in the Caucasus region,” he said.
He also said that Georgia now has a gas alternative, which, as he put it, “is a geopolitical revolution.”
Saakashvili noted that Georgia has to buy Gazprom’s gas because the supply from Shah-Deniz is delayed because of technical problems.
“And I think the [BP-led] consortium [which operates the Shah-Deniz field] should give more explanations to us and society about this delay,” Saakashvili added.
The President said that Georgia will have to pay the doubled price offered by Gazprom – USD 235 per 1000 cubic meters. This is USD 5 more than Gazprom proposed in early November.
The Georgian leadership, including President Saakashvili, repeatedly claimed that Georgia would not pay this “political price.”
“Despite these bold statements about the intention to give up Russian gas supplies, Georgia still has to buy this expansive gas. It is clear that the government, and especially those who were in charge of talks – the PM and Energy Minister, have failed in the negotiation process to secure alternative gas supplies… It is already clear that PM Nogaideli is doomed for dismissal this winter,” MP Levan Berdzenishvili from the opposition Republican Party said on December 25.