Yerevan wary to make sharp moves despite international pressure
Last week, US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher stated that penalties would be imposed on Armenian, Chinese and Moldovan entities cooperating with Iran in the sphere of WMD. Boucher said the US Congress was notified of the decision earlier in the day and it will soon be published in the Federal Register.
In a notable comment the US Ambassador to Armenia John Ordway said, the United States does not object to Armenia’s cooperation with Iran close cooperation, but expects that Yerevan would not support “sponsoring terrorism” by Tehran. “We understand that Armenia is in a complicated geopolitical situation, but Armenia must understand the US concerns taking into account the efforts of Iran to obtain weapons of mass destruction and openly state its [Armenia’s] position concerning this matter.”
It is the first time when the American official publicly voiced reservations about Armenia’s policy towards Iran.
Armenia’s foreign policy is in troubled waters. US and Turkish influence in South Caucasus is increasing. Train-and-Equip program is launched in Georgia and plans to substantially upgrade country’s defense capabilities. Trilateral security agreement was reached between Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey in Trabzon, which aims at defending the pipeine infrastructure.
Armenia attempts to pursue more balanced foreign policy taking these developments into consideration, but pressed by the public opinion and perception of the national interest attempts to maintain status quo in Nagorno-Karabakh and balance real/perceived threats coming from Turkey through cooperation with Russia and Iran.
Some recent statements by the Azeri and Turkish sides would do little to diffuse Armenian alert. During the joint press-conference with Turkey’s deputy Prime-Minister Devlet Bahceli and National Defense Minister Sabahattin Cakmanoglu on May 6-8, Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar Abiyev noted that Azeri army was ready to destroy the terrorist centers set up on the occupied territory and liberate the land (Nagorno-Karabakh). Earlier, Cakmanoglu stated the Azerbaijani problems are problem for all Turks. “Whatever resolution Azerbaijan adopts, we will support it,” the Turkish minister said.
Though, in parallel of militaristic rhetoric Turkish foreign minister Ismael Cem on Wednesday 15 May met foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan for first time during the NATO foreign ministers meeting, which was held in Reykjavik. Along with the trilateral consultation he also met his Armenian counterpart one on one.
Some officials and experts in Turkey expected much from this meeting. English “Turkish Daily News” reported a few days before the summit that important steps were expected to be taken for opening of the closed border between Turkey and Armenia. However, the summit failed to deliver a breakthrough, and the statement remained fairly dry.
According to Arminfo News Agency, Turkey’s foreign minister Ismael Cem has set forth a number of strict conditions to Armenia. In return for establishing diplomatic relations and lifting the blockade Turkey reportedly requested from the Armenian side to stop politicizing the problem of the Armenian Genocide and leave the matter to historians; to give up territorial dispute with Turkey and remove corresponding articles from its constitution; to withdraw its troops from the “occupied Azeri territories” and to create a “security corridor” between mainland Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan Autonomy isolated from Azerbaijan proper after Armenian success in Karabakh.
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Guliyev told journalists that there never was a mentioning of establishing diplomatic and economic relations between Turkey and Armenia in the first place.
It seems that the United States will intensify efforts to ease tensions between Ankara and Yerevan against the background of the new international setting. However, existing nationalist sentiments in Armenia regarding Karabakh cannot be discounted neither by the international community nor by the Armenian leadership.
As the western interest towards and the interest in South Caucasus increased, many experts consider that Russia would attempt to conserve the Karabakh conflict as a tool for pressureing both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Vefa Guluzadeh, former Azeri state advisor, thinks the western powers must work more on changing Russia’s attitude than that of Armenian leadership to achieve a breakthrough in peace process.
But viewing Armenia as solely Russian satellite incapable of independent actions, means discounting complex internal political process in this country. Presidential elections are pending and claims against president Kocharyan intensify. Nationalist president Robert Kocharyan looses popularity, as opposition accuses his government of corruption. It is noteworthy that according to many analysts it is quite possible that hawkish defense minister Serj Sarkisyan would replace current Prime Minister Andranik Markaryan.
It is thus difficult to imagine that Kocharyan’s administration would be inclined to make any concessions. Growing social discontent of the Armenian population and possible premiership appointment of the hard-liner defense minister Serj Sarkisyan give reasons suspect that Armenian foreign policy would continue its uneasy balancing between the regional powers.
By Revaz Bakhtadze, Civil Georgia
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