On October 28, Georgians went to polls to elect their fifth president. Runoff between the two top contenders – the ruling party-backed Salome Zurabishvili and the opposition candidate Grigol Vashadze – will be held later this month or early December.
To reflect on the first round of the presidential elections, we have asked three Georgian professors – Ghia Nodia, Kornely Kakachia and Tornike Sharashenidze, to assess the election results, as well as the possible outcomes of the upcoming runoff.
Ghia Nodia, director of the International School of Caucasus Studies at Ilia Chavchavadze State University and head of the Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development:
First and foremost, people got new confidence that it is possible to defeat the Georgian Dream (GD) government through elections. When there is a dominant party that controls pretty much everything, it is reasonable to be skeptical about such possibility. The 2012 precedent (when GD defeated the United National Movement) was not sufficient to reassure us that from now on electoral change of power will become routine: then opposition was represented by a superrich person who had twice more money than the national budget, this cannot be realistically repeated. So, whatever one thinks about this or that candidate, this is good news for the Georgian democracy.
Second, the myth that nothing happens until some powerful “third force” emerges (implying a new opposition party not linked to the UNM), was shattered. Three candidates of the UNM splinter groups (Grigol Vashadze, David Bakradze, and Zurab Japaridze) together got over 50 percent. UNM continues to be unacceptable for many Georgian voters – but Georgian politics had always been highly polarized. This is not a good thing but nothing to be surprised of.
Third, Bidzina Ivanishvili is a totally incompetent political leader. Whatever his business acumen, it did not translate into a political capacity.
The leader is expected to develop a vision and to select capable people for the key roles. Ivanishvili can do neither.
All of his key lieutenants have proven failures. In Salome Zurabishvili, he made a catastrophic choice of the candidate for presidency (nobody takes her status of an independent candidate seriously), and he did so against the wishes of his party. It would only be natural for the party to question his leadership, but they cannot do that.
This does not mean that UNM, or Mikheil Saakashvili personally, are poised to return to power. Vashadze cannot win the second round without support of other opposition parties. Opposition victory in the next parliamentary elections expected in 2020 looks like a real possibility now, but it is unlikely to bring domination of a single political group.
Kornely Kakachia, professor of political science at Tbilisi State University and director of the Tbilisi-based Georgian Institute of Politics:
What is most important, is that despite very polarized and confrontational pre-election environment, the election can be considered valid and quite competitive. Both sides, as well as international observers, have acknowledged that. As it was expected, the candidates again failed to offer positive agenda to voters. Rather than to unveil their own visions about the country’s development, to discuss dire social-economic situation and many other issues that voters are concerned about, the entire pre-election campaign was built on negative scandals and attempts to demonize each other. It is important that the sides again failed to attract more than 50% of voters who simply did not show up.
Due to the strategic mistake of the ruling party, these elections have actually measured the ruling party’s rating and it proved that it is lower than expected.
It’s also worth noting that although the second round runoffs were anticipated, the opposition force garnered much larger sum of votes and actually finished neck-in-neck with the ruling party-endorsed candidate, which will further encourage the opposition consolidation for the 2020 parliamentary elections. Georgian voters, who historically do not express support to any ruling political force for more than two terms, have again confirmed that they are ready for changes, including of the political regime, which is a serious challenge for the ruling party.
As expected, informal leaders – Bidzina Ivanishvili and Mikheil Saakashvili, who were actively involved in the campaigns, greatly influenced the elections. Thanks to the resources at their hands, they managed to establish a bipolar election environment and polarize the political environment further, which does not contribute to establishment of a sustainable multiparty system in Georgia.
The most important thing now, is which side will manage to attract the apathetic voters.
Both sides will have to pass “the maturity test” to prove their commitment to the principles of electoral democracy.
In other words, how the parties accept defeat will become the maturity test for the political elite and its results will largely determine whether Georgia will advance in various international rankings, where the country is still classified as a hybrid regime. To make this scenario a reality, it is also essential that political contenders reject the idea of early parliamentary elections and that the 2020 parliamentary polls are held within constitutional timeframes.
Tornike Sharashenidze, head of the MA program in International Affairs at Georgian Institute for Public Affairs:
This looks like the beginning of the end for the Georgian Dream. No matter how runoff ends they have lost. If Vashadze wins they are broken because they made this elections a matter of life and death (instead of democratic process). If Zurabishvili wins the Georgian Dream will pay a huge political price for it because no one is going to believe she won without falsification and abuse of administrative resources.
This post is also available in: ქართული (Georgian) Русский (Russian)