Strange Games of the New Allies
Abashidze’s Foreign Visits Increase Opposition’s Fears
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| Abashidze sees his influence increase |
Facing the political crisis, President Eduard Shevardnadze increased the influence of the Adjarian leader Aslan Abashidze.
Immediately after the talks with Shevardnadze in Batumi, Aslan Abashidze paid unexpected visits to Armenia and Azerbaijan.
According to the official reports, Aslan Abashidze discussed recent developments in Georgia with Armenian President Robert Kocharian and later personally congratulated Ilham Aliev on his presidency.
President Shevardnadze’s phone conversations with the Armenian, Azeri and Russian Presidents preceded Abashidze’s visits. Reportedly all three leaders promised Shevardnadze full backing in ongoing political crisis.
Shevardnadze visited Batumi on November 10, amid the protest rallies in Tbilisi demanding his resignation. Abashidze said that the Autonomous Republic would provide assistance to the central government “in order to avoid destabilization in the country, masterminded by the opposition leaders.”
Opposition fears that Shevardnadze intends to overcome current crisis with the help of the pro-Russian Aslan Abashidze.
Mikheil Saakashvili, the key opposition leader, expressed concern regarding Abashidze’s visit to Armenia. He said on November 11, while addressing the protest rally in Tbilisi that Shevardnadze and Abashidze are “masterminding conspiracy against Georgia.”
He supposed that Shevardnadze and Abashidze “might use the Russian military forces deployed in Armenia and Batumi [Adjarian capital] to provoke civil confrontation in Georgia.”
Saakashvili said that ethnic Armenian minority living in a south-western Georgian province of Samtskhe-Javakheti, might also be involved in the provocation and secessionist movement.
Visit of the Russian defense minister Sergei Ivanov to Armenia on the same day, when Aslan Abashidze held talks with the Armenian President, further increased speculations over the issue.
However Ivanov told reporters in Armenian capital Yerevan that the Russian military forces “deployed in Georgia will not be involved in the country’s internal affairs.” He said that the force will be used only in case of attack on the Russian militaries in Georgia.
Zurab Zhvania, another leader of the opposition, supposed on November 11 that Abashidze’s recently increased role might lead to the transfer of power from Shevardnadze to the Adjarian leader.
Aslan Abashidze’s visit to Armenia was kept secret until the last moment. Adjarian officials categorically denied the visit and made the first comments only after the Armenian TV channels broadcasted footage of Abashidze’s meeting with Armenian President Kocharian.
Kakha Imnadze, the spokesman of the Georgian President, dismissed as “absurd” the recent statements by the opposition leaders.
“Abashidze’s visit to Armenia and his meeting with President Kocharyan was scheduled before Shevardnadze’s arrival in Batumi. If it were a confidential visit, you [reporters] would never have learnt about it,” Shevardnadze’s spokesman Kakha Imnadze said in the interview to the Tbilisi-based TV company Mze (the Sun) late on November 11.
Some observers also do not rule out increase of Abashidze’s power in the near future. Ghia Nodia of the think-tank Caucasus Institute of Peace, Democracy and Development supposes that Abashidze may become a Parliamentary Chairman.
“If the new Parliament is convened, despite the opposition’s demand to hold a repeat parliamentary elections, Aslan Abashidze may be elected on the post of the Chairman, as the pro-governmental parties, including the Revival [led by Abashidze] will form the majority in the newly convened parliament, thus paving the way on the political ladder up to the presidency [in 2005]” Ghia Nodia told Civil Georgia.
Ghia Nodia also says that promotion of Abashidze or other person from the Revival Union, in the Georgian politics may be “a political trick of Shevardnadze.” According to the Georgian Constitution, if the President resigns a Parliamentary Chairman becomes acting president pending a snap election.
Abashidze talks to his closest associate
Jemal Gogitidze
“If Abashidze or other Adjarian leader becomes the Parliamentary Chairman than the public’s focus of demand will shift from Shevardnadze’s resignation to other issues, as it would be extremely unpopular for the most of Georgians to see Abashidze, or his close associate as an acting president of Georgia,” Ghia Nodia says.
He also supposes that on the other hand Abashidze demonstrated his power by visiting Armenia and Azerbaijan, where he received warm welcomes.