Tensions Mount, Time for the Political Settlement is Running Out in Adjara

Adjarian leadership responded to President Saakashvili’s ultimatum by heightening the security measures and tightening pressure on local opposition activists. Aslan Abashidze has blown the bridges and shows no willingness to hear the government’s concenrns.

On May 2, President Mikheil Saakashvili has given what he called a “very final” deadline of ten days to the Adjarian leader to disarm the paramilitary groups, hand over the weapons and return to the Constitutional framework. Unless these demands are met, Saakashvili would use his constitutional powers to disband the legislature of the autonomy, as well as the local governments in the districts, and will appoint the election date. 

Georgian Security Ministry alleged on May 3, that a plan to destroy three key bridges linking Adjara to the rest of Georgia were elaborated and carried out under the command of the the retired Russian Maj. Gen. Yuri Netkachev.

Netkachev, notorious for the massive illegal weapons sales as as a chief of the Russian troops in Transdniestria in early 1990s has served as Abashidze’s military advisor since 1999 and has arrived to Batumi just a day before the bridges were destroyed, says the Georgian Deputy Security Minister Gigi Ugulava.

“If his [Netkachov’s] involvement in this terrorist act, I mean the destruction of of bridges, is confirmed, criminal charges will be brought against Netkachov, who is a citizen of Russia,” Gigi Ugulava said at a news briefing on May 3.

Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania said on May 3, that 3,7 million Lari (USD 1,85 million) will be needed for reconstruction of the main, Choloki bridge. 

Meanwhile, international concerns over Adjara developments are increasing as hopes for the political resolution fade away. Council of Europe Secretary General Walter Schwimmer expressed alarm over the recent developments in Georgia’s defiant Adjarian Autonomy.

In a statement issued on May 2 Walter Schwimmer says “it is shocking to hear that in Georgia, bridges are exploded because the central and the local [Adjarian] authorities have lost their ability to dialogue.”
 
“I strongly appeal both to President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili and Adjarian leader Aslan Abashidze to do their utmost to stop this extremely dangerous escalation. A bridge can be re-built, but even one person shot dead can never be brought back to life”, the Secretary General said.

Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on May 2 calling Georgia’s central authorities for restraint towards defiant Adjarian Autonomy. “Recent developments in Adjara trigger our concerns,” the statement reads.

“Use of force against Adjara would have catastrophic consequences. The existing problems should be solved through dialogue,” the Russian Foreign Ministry’s statement reads. However, Georgian Foreign Ministry responded that use of force in Adjara was not planned.

Meanwhile at least one opposition activist was arrested and five other beaten up in Adjarian capital Batumi late on May 2, according to Our Adjara opposition movement.

Political analysts in Tbilisi doubt that Abashidze would follow conditions set by the President Saakashvili. Abashidze has already refused to disarm his paramilitary forces in mid-April after the failed talks with Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania in Batumi. By destroying the bridges, Abashidze has shown, both literally and symbolically, he is going to fight to the bitter end.

Hence, Saakashvili is likely to follow on his ultimatum and proceed by dissolving of the Adjarian local government bodies and the supreme council . According to article 73 of the Georgian Constitution, the President with the Parliamentary approval “halts or dismisses the activity of the representative bodies of the local self-government, or territorial units, if their activity endangers the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country or the exercise of Constitutional authority of state authority within the country.”

The Constitutional Court is expected to rule on the current Adjara constitution, repeatedly amended by Abashidze to strengthen his grip on power. Meanwhile, a group of lawmakers of the newly convened Georgian Parliament drafted the law, which will outline a new system of governance of the Autonomous Republic. According to the proposal, Adjara will retain its autonomous status, but the political system would be transformed into a parliamentary, rather than the current presidential rule. The parliament would appoint a leader of the the party with a majority of seats, or of the coalition – as the prime-minister, who would serve as a chief Adjarian executive and head the government.

Consequently, the draft abolishes the position of the “President of the Autonomy” currently held by Aslan Abashidze. It would also create unicamaral parliament to replace the current two chambers.

But while the legal process is in full swing, it is also clear that holding of the snap elections in Adjara with Abashidze still in power is doomed to failure. Abashidze has already tried to sabotage the presidential and parliamentary elections and has foiled the rerun parliamentary elections in Adjara’s two districts in April. It is unlikely that he’d be willing to sign under a fiat of his own political death by holding free and fair elections.

This scenario would force Georgian authorities to declare Abashidze and his government as illegal, and will open the way to the police or military solution, if the intenational and national pressure is not applied to awaken Abashidze to bitter reality.