Political Crisis is a Lose-Lose Situation ? Pundit Says

The current political crisis in the country offers nothing but a lose-lose situation for both the authorities and the opposition, Gia Nodia, a political analyst  and chairman of the Tbilisi-based think tank, Caucasian Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development (CIPDD), has said.

At least eight opposition parties have joined forces to challenge the arrest of ex-Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili and demand early parliamentary elections. As thousands of protesters gathered outside Parliament on September 28, the opposition vowed to extend the campaign to the regions.

In an article entitled ?Playing with Fire ? Who will Win the Lost War?, published by the Georgian daily, 24 Saati (24 Hours), Nodia said the crisis was also a setback to democracy, as it had further shaken people?s trust in politicians. He did, however, say that it was ?a normal process? for a country still in democratic transition.

Nodia said that it will be almost impossible for the authorities to convince not only opponents but even supporters that Okruashvili, who is charged with extortion, money laundering and misuse of office, was arrested because of his wrongdoings and not because he had switched to the opposition.

?The allegation against the authorities involving a selective approach to corruption with the targeting of political opponents only,? Nodia wrote, ?is quite serious, especially given their ambition of being a beacon of democracy.?

He suggested, however, that Okruashvili?s attack on the president was a pre-emptive measure, as it became clear on September 25 that the authorities planned to arrest him. Okruashvili convened a news conference and attacked the authorities and personally President Saakashvili shortly after the arrest of Dimitri Kitoshvili, the president?s spokesperson, who subsequently testified against the ex-defense minister.

?The timing of the arrest was extremely unfavorable for the authorities,? Nodia said. ?It will be almost impossible to disavow one simple impression: maybe Okruashvili really is a criminal, but his arrest came after he fell out with the authorities. This is a serious blow to the authorities.?

The pundit suggested that the authorities ?should demonstrate their adherence to democratic principles? in dealing with ?the growing wave of protests.?

?It is hard to demand that the government show restraint in their rhetoric, when it is accused by the opposition of being murderers and thieves,? Nodia said. ?But I don?t think it?s in their interest to call the opposition ?petty traitors.?

President Saakashvili had described some of his opponents as ?petty traitors? on September 29.
The political analyst said that the opposition ?does not look very convincing either.? ?It will not be difficult for the authorities to prove that Okruashvili was really a corrupt official who had abused the office and to claim that the opposition is unprincipled in wanting to protect the very person whom they had wanted to see in jail yesterday.?

Although there has been considerable opposition unity on the issue, and consequent strength, Nodia suggested that the coalition was fragile, given the fact that it was built around Okruashvili.

?A real democrat would now say: Okruashvili should not be in power and jail might indeed be the proper place for him, but in this particular situation he was treated unjustly and this is a source of concern. Is it possible that a united opposition will agree on this? I doubt it. The opposition really needs a hero and Okruashvili, jailed by the authorities, can serve as the only hero for them,? Nodia wrote. ?Rejection of Okruashvili will weaken the protest wave, but on the other hand, the use of Okruashvili ensures that those with democratic values will maintain their distance from the opposition? It won?t be easy for the opposition to deal with this dilemma without challenging the unity of the opposition.?

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