Ariel Cohen: I don’t See the Operation with Russian Involvement

[Civil Georgia. February 22. Interview] Possible scenarios of the military anti-terrorist operation in Pankisi became the topic for the comments from the Russian and the US capitals. Civil Georgia asked Dr. Ariel Cohen, a Research Fellow at Heritage Foundation and author of “Russian Imperialism: Development and Crisis” to comment on current situation regarding Pankisi.

Q: Russia exploits the image of a “joint anti-terrorism struggle” with the United States and implicitly claims endorsement of its possible military action in Georgia by the US. To what extent you think the Russian claims are warranted? Do the US political circles consider that the military operation in Pankisi is a necessity?

A: The US foreign policy circles are studying the situation carefully. 9/11 attacks changed the geopolitical calculus. Mr. Remler pointed out that there are Afhganistan-connected elements in the Pankissi gorge. This cannot be tolertated.

The US has come to the conclusion that the old Georgian strategy of coddling Chechen separatists on Georgian land — out of inability to resist, or to satisfy some friendly powers — may not be effective any longer. Hence Mr. Remler’s remarks.

But the way from there to a joint operation with Russia is long. I believe the US will try combined US-Georgian training, and the Chechens will get the hint and leave the Pankisi gorge — and the Georgian territory.

Q: What impact, in your opinion, the military or any large-scale operation would have on Pankisi and security situation in Georgia in general, even without Russian involvement? With Russian involvement?

A: I don’t see the operation with Russian involvement. I hope that the more robust Georgian presence, and starving the separatist and terrorist elements in Pankisi from outside supplies, weapons and money will do the trick. If not, a strike, or a series of strikes against them will make the Georgians more proud and more assured that they control their own land.

Q: From what you know, can any type of military operation in Pankisi bring tangible results, or the risk of bogging down in protracted warfare a la Chechnya is a likely scenario?

A: I don’t think you plan an operation with an intention to bog down. I think it is important to distinguish the peaceful and loyal kisti population, and elements connected to international terrorist organizations. Peaceful population should not suffer – that’s the main mistake of the Russian military in Chechnya, and this is why the international community has criticized Russia. But Georgia is too small, weak and sensitive to afford the Chechen militants’ presence.

For Civil Georgia’s Special Project – Pankisi Crisis