Foreign Experts on Georgia’s Presidential Elections

To reflect on the first round of the presidential elections, we continue asking:

What do you think were the major takeaways from the presidentials and how do you think the processes will unfold in the runoffs?

This time, our respondents are three Georgia-watchers – Lincoln Mitchell, Thomas de Waal and Luis Navarro.

Lincoln Mitchell, political analyst:

In the first round of this election, Grigol Vashadze ran a good and smart campaign while Salome Zurabishvili, the candidate running with the support of the Georgian Dream, appeared to run no real campaign at all. Vashadze kept the focus on the UNM’s critique of the governing party and set the agenda for the campaign, while Zurabishvili did little to either draw attention to the accomplishments of the Georgian Dream or to nail home the argument that Vashadze was a stalking horse for former President Saakashvili. Given this, the results are not surprising. The major takeaways here are that the Georgian Dream is currently unpopular and that enough time has gone by since 2012 that they can no longer automatically win election because of the unpopularity of the UNM. Another takeaway is that Georgian democracy is currently strong enough that an opposition candidate can force, and possibly win, a runoff.

One way to think about this election is that if it is understood as Vashadze against Zurabishvili, Vashadze has a real shot at winning, but if it framed as Saakashvili against the Georgian Dream, Zurabishvili will be in much better shape.

I am not making any predictions about who will win the runoff, but the challenge for Vashadze is to hold together a potentially unwieldy opposition coalition. When supporters of Vashadze and David Bakradze, who has endorsed Vashadze, are combined, Vashadze almost has fifty percent of the electorate. Vashadze also must make sure his voters come to the polls, while maintaining at least some distance from Saakashvili. The Georgian Dream has to expand the electorate and bring some of their less enthusiastic supporters, which were so important in 2016, to the polls. If they can do that, Zurabishvili can win. One way to think about this election is that if it is understood as Vashadze against Zurabishvili, Vashadze has a real shot at winning, but if it framed as Saakashvili against the Georgian Dream, Zurabishvili will be in much better shape.

Thomas de Waal, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Europe:

The major conclusion from the first round of the presidential election is that Georgian society has preserved its political vitality and capacity to reject the ruling party—and that state institutions are sufficiently strong to allow them to express that choice at the ballot box. The vote is a big setback for Georgian Dream and for Bidzina Ivanishvili in particular. He has been shown to lose his “magic touch” and the aura of authority the party has had for the past six years is now badly damaged. It is indicative that the party is using the threat of “civil war” to mobilize voters for Zurabishvili. That suggests it lacks a positive agenda. I now expect Grigol Vashadze to pick up more opposition votes and win the second round.

The vote is a big setback for Georgian Dream and for Bidzina Ivanishvili in particular.

However, it is disappointing that Georgian politics still remains a two-party show—and even a two-man show. If this vote were replicated in parliamentary elections the two same parties would again dominate the political scene. We can only hope that this healthy exercise of democracy invigorates other parties and not just the United National Movement.

Luis Navarro, Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute:

The urban public, which were key to the change of government in 2012 are expressing their dissatisfaction with the pace and results of progress under the Georgian Dream. They see-through Bidzina Ivanishvili’s reliance on inexperienced leaders, without their own constituencies, to assure his informal governance.

UNM makes a serious mistake if they believe their performance is a reflection of popular desire to see the return of Mikheil Saakashvili.

UNM makes a serious mistake if they believe their performance is a reflection of popular desire to see the return of Mikheil Saakashvili to either formal or informal governance, they must demonstrate how their vision of the future will break with their own past and the Georgian Dream/Bidzina Ivanishvili. We will see how far the Georgian Dream/Bidzina Ivanishvili are willing to go in mustering their wealth, administrative resources and media assets, while attacking NGOs, to avoid the loss of a post they have made largely ceremonial.

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